What should be the main tool to bring prices down?
Poll
Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?
How the odds moved
What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
Below 2.5% 24%2.5% to 2.9% 34%3.0% to 3.4% 26%3.5% or higher, or unpublished 15%
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
What would move the odds
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Possible · not happened40% chance
October 2026 CPI inflation reported at 3.0%+If it happens:↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished↑ 3.0% to 3.4%↓ 2.5% to 2.9%↓ Below 2.5%
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened22% chance
November 2026 CPI inflation reported below 2.5%If it happens:↑ Below 2.5%↓ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished↓ 3.0% to 3.4%
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened45% chance
Fed cuts rates in December 2026If it happens:↑ Below 2.5%↓ 3.0% to 3.4%↓ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened30% chance
US gasoline average tops $3.50If it happens:↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished↑ 3.0% to 3.4%↓ Below 2.5%
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened25% chance
New broad US tariff increases take effectIf it happens:↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished↓ Below 2.5%
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Started at 24% / 34% / 26% / 15% on Oct 17. Each event can fire once.
Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027
What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
Below 2.5%
24%
2.5% to 2.9%
34%
3.0% to 3.4%
26%
3.5% or higher, or unpublished
15%
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Discussion
Ask @zoose anything about Inflation
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New forecast: What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Below 2.5% 24%, 2.5% to 2.9% 34%, 3.0% to 3.4% 26%, 3.5% or higher, or unpublished 15%.