Conflict

Gaza war and ceasefire

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Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse
Early reports

Forecast

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?
No, ceasefire not declared over 71%
Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%

Poll

Who should govern Gaza after the war?

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?

How the odds moved

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?

Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%No, ceasefire not declared over 71%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Israeli strikes kill 50+ in one day If it happens: ↑ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers If it happens: ↑ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 20% chance
    Hamas agrees to weapons handover If it happens: ↓ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    Stabilization force troops deploy in Gaza If it happens: ↓ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Israel halts all aid entry If it happens: ↑ Yes, ceasefire declared over ↓ No, ceasefire not declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?

Started at 29% / 71% on Oct 18. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 31, 2027

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?

Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%
No, ceasefire not declared over 71%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Gaza

  1. New forecast: Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027? Starting odds: Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%, No, ceasefire not declared over 71%.

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