6 developments from 11 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.
4 stories say getting worse
Reported by several outletsWill the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Started at 29% / 71% on Oct 18. Each event can fire once.
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
New forecast: Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027? Starting odds: Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%, No, ceasefire not declared over 71%.
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Gaza
The UN World Food Programme has warned that funding shortages will leave about 500,000 people in the Gaza Strip without critical food aid in a territory where two thirds of the population remains acutely food insecure. The WFP said it is reducing its monthly assistance from 1.6 million to 1.1 million people.
Gaza
Israelis are set to vote Oct. 27, in the first national elections since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Gaza
The attack on Heidi Levine and Palestinians during the sensitive olive harvest again highlights the rampant settler violence that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blamed on a small number of troublemakers.
Gaza
Amid funding shortages, the World Food Program has said it is being forced to reduce necessary aid. Over two-thirds of Palestinians in Gaza are facing acute hunger, according to the agency.
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Gaza
About 80 Israeli settlers set fire to olive trees and threw stones at Palestinians in a West Bank village Friday, injuring at least two people, including a US photojournalist with The Washington Post. The coordinated attack came as violence by settlers is on the rise during the olive harvest in the occupied Palestinian
Gaza
Critically acclaimed Irish novelist Sally Rooney's announcement that her books could no longer be sold in the UK due to her support for proscribed group Palestine Action has left British booksellers rushing to stock up on her works before distributors run out. The British government's ban on the group, which practiced