Conflict

Iran and the Middle East conflict

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Analysis

Egypt's top security body says it has agreed to support Saudi Arabia against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, as drones targeted Riyadh and Saudi-led forces launched airstrikes to break the Houthi siege of Taiz. Civilians are bearing the cost: an airstrike killed at least nine people in Houthi-held Yemen, fires were reported on three tankers, and DW reports that Houthi attacks on strategic Saudi assets threaten Riyadh's economic standing. Watch Russia's top diplomat's visit to Tehran, which he says aims to avert a return to major hostilities, as CNN reports the US is considering using its biggest non-nuclear bomb against Iran if President Trump decides to renew combat.

4 stories 4 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

How the odds moved

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?

Yes, US strike occurs 28%No US strike occurs 72%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    Houthi strike causes mass casualties in Saudi Arabia If it happens: ↑ Yes, US strike occurs ↓ No US strike occurs
    Will it happen by Mar 1?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    IAEA reports Iran reaching 90% enrichment If it happens: ↑ Yes, US strike occurs ↓ No US strike occurs
    Will it happen by Mar 1?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Third US carrier strike group enters Persian Gulf If it happens: ↑ Yes, US strike occurs
    Will it happen by Mar 1?
  • Possible · not happened 20% chance
    Oman-mediated de-escalation agreement signed If it happens: ↓ Yes, US strike occurs
    Will it happen by Mar 1?

Started at 28% / 72% on Oct 16. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 1, 2027

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?

Yes, US strike occurs 28%
No US strike occurs 72%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Iran conflict
  1. New forecast: Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027? Starting odds: Yes, US strike occurs 28%, No US strike occurs 72%.

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