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Analysis

Brent crude prices have surged to $110 following reports of tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine. These supply disruptions and market volatility threaten to increase global fuel costs and exacerbate shortages, such as those currently reported in Bali. Observers are monitoring whether diplomatic efforts, including proposed diesel agreements, will impact global supply chains or if regional conflicts will continue to drive price instability.

2 stories 2 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should the US ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports to help lower global fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?

Below $90 per barrel 30%$90 to $110 per barrel 37%Above $110 per barrel 34%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 22% chance
    Hormuz tanker traffic largely halted If it happens: ↑ Above $110 per barrel ↓ Below $90 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Agreement to halt Hormuz shipping attacks If it happens: ↑ Below $90 per barrel ↓ Above $110 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 33% chance
    OPEC+ announces large output increase If it happens: ↑ Below $90 per barrel ↓ Above $110 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Ukrainian strike halts Russian oil exports If it happens: ↑ Above $110 per barrel ↓ Below $90 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 28% chance
    Brent settles above $120 If it happens: ↑ Above $110 per barrel ↓ $90 to $110 per barrel ↓ Below $90 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    Brent settles below $95 by year-end If it happens: ↑ Below $90 per barrel ↓ Above $110 per barrel
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 30% / 37% / 34% on Oct 17. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?

Below $90 per barrel 30%
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027? Starting odds: Below $90 per barrel 30%, $90 to $110 per barrel 37%, Above $110 per barrel 34%.

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