Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
B BBC News· 16h

Aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept more disruption

Are people going to have to increasingly accept more delays and diversions as the effects of climate change intensify?

Analysis

8 developments from 9 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

8 stories 9 outlets ↑ Getting worse

6 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Should new homes be banned in high flood- or fire-risk areas?

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Discuss Full coverage · 23 →
F France 24· 4h

Russia pounds Kyiv as Rubio urges Ukraine's Zelensky to 'focus' on ending the war

Russia on Monday said it carried out a "massive strike" on targets in Kyiv and its region as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that Washington had paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine and urged its president Volodymyr Zelensky to focus on ending the war.

Analysis

Russia struck civilian targets across nine Ukrainian regions as relations between Kyiv and Washington soured, with Zelensky saying Ukraine would no longer abide by Trump's demands not to strike Russian oil refineries. For Ukrainians, PBS reports fears that the rift could leave the country more exposed to escalating aerial assaults as winter approaches. Ukrainian officials also complained that SpaceX limited Starlink connectivity without notice, which Trump says the White House did not order. Watch the EU leaders' Brussels summit, where Zelensky is seeking European support, and the Nord Stream sabotage trial in Germany, where the defense is seeking dismissal.

12 stories 14 outlets ↑ Getting worse

5 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 37 →
D DW· 4h

Brazil: Lula, Bolsonaro clash in heated presidential debate

The candidates traded barbs, including over Bolsonaro's ties to US President Donald Trump in their first debate, days before the October 25 election runoff.

Analysis

The Justice Department has escalated its fight with California ahead of next month's midterms. It sued the state seeking a court order to block tabulation of certain ballots it links to suspected noncitizens, and warned that local officials who process those ballots risk criminal investigation, after Los Angeles County refused a DOJ demand to confirm the citizenship of people on a list. The dispute bears on whether some Californians' ballots get counted and puts the local workers who run elections under legal threat; watch for how the court responds to the DOJ's request, as well as Brazil's October 25 runoff between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro and Israel's October 27 election.

12 stories 15 outlets

3 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Discuss Full coverage · 2 →
F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 3d

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources.

2 stories 2 outlets 2 primary sources
Early reports

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
C CNN· 2d

Character.ai files for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides

+1 more sources

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

8 stories 9 outlets ↕ Mixed

4 stories say mixed, 2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.