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F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 3d

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources.

2 stories 2 outlets 2 primary sources
Early reports

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 2d

China says it will curb tech exports, including AI, citing national security risks

The proposal came as China and the U.S. made progress in dialogues over AI safety and governance and on the setting up of a notification mechanism between the two superpowers for AI incidents that could threaten national security.

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

3 stories 3 outlets ↕ Mixed

2 stories say mixed

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 2d

Democrats say Trump increased investments in drugmakers that were given Medicare exemptions

The report from congressional Democrats found that Trump's pharmaceutical stock holdings grew from a maximum reported value of $1.7 million in 2024 to as much as $56.2 million at the end of 2025.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

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B Bloomberg.com· 18h

Disney Offers $180 Million Soft Landing to Staff at Bankrupt AI Firm

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

1 stories 1 outlets ↓ Getting better

1 story says getting better

Early reports

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 18h

Trump endorses embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection

Israelis are set to vote Oct. 27, in the first national elections since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse
Early reports

Forecast

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?
No, ceasefire not declared over 71%
Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%

Poll

Who should govern Gaza after the war?

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?