Interest rates and central banks

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2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources.

2 stories 2 outlets 2 primary sources

Early reports

No net change 33%

Net cut of 25 bp 30%

Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast · closes Nov 30

Readers say yes –

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?

Net increase 10%No net change 33%Net cut of 25 bp 30%Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

Possible · not happened 45% chance
Fed cuts rates in late October If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↑ Net cut of 25 bp ↓ Net increase ↓ No net change
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened 10% chance
Fed makes a 50 bp cut If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↓ Net cut of 25 bp ↓ Net increase ↓ No net change
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened 30% chance
Monthly jobs report shows job losses If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↓ No net change ↓ Net increase
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened 35% chance
Core PCE inflation reported at 3%+ If it happens: ↑ Net increase ↑ No net change ↓ Net cut of 50+ bp
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened 8% chance
10-year Treasury yield closes above 5% If it happens: ↑ Net increase ↑ No net change ↓ Net cut of 50+ bp
Will it happen by Jan 31?

Started at 10% / 33% / 30% / 27% on Oct 18. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast

Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027

Net increase 10%

No net change 33%

Net cut of 25 bp 30%

Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

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New forecast: By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Net increase 10%, No net change 33%, Net cut of 25 bp 30%, Net cut of 50+ bp 27%.