Jobs and the labor market

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1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

1 stories 1 outlets ↓ Getting better

1 story says getting better

Early reports

4.2% to 4.5% 48%

4.1% or lower 30%

4.6% or higher 23%

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast · closes Jan 16

Readers say yes –

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

4.1% or lower 30%4.2% to 4.5% 48%4.6% or higher 23%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

Possible · not happened 22% chance
Weekly jobless claims exceed 260,000 If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
Will it happen by Feb 5?
Possible · not happened 35% chance
Job openings fall below 7 million If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
Will it happen by Feb 5?
Possible · not happened 15% chance
Major tech sector layoffs exceed 50,000 in a month If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
Will it happen by Feb 5?
Possible · not happened 40% chance
Monthly payroll growth exceeds 200,000 If it happens: ↑ 4.1% or lower ↓ 4.6% or higher
Will it happen by Feb 5?

Started at 30% / 48% / 23% on Oct 19. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast

Scenarios to Feb 5, 2027

4.1% or lower 30%

4.2% to 4.5% 48%

4.6% or higher 23%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Ask @zoose anything about Jobs

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New forecast: What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Starting odds: 4.1% or lower 30%, 4.2% to 4.5% 48%, 4.6% or higher 23%.