Climate

Climate change and extreme weather

Chat

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

2 stories 2 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Should new homes be banned in high flood- or fire-risk areas?

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

How the odds moved

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?

Warmest year on record 20%Second warmest on record 41%Third warmest or lower 39%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    NOAA declares El Niño conditions If it happens: ↑ Warmest year on record ↓ Third warmest or lower
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    October 2026 is warmest October recorded If it happens: ↑ Warmest year on record ↓ Third warmest or lower
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    WMO says 2026 tracking top two If it happens: ↑ Warmest year on record ↑ Second warmest on record ↓ Third warmest or lower
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Jan–Nov 2026 ranks third or lower If it happens: ↑ Third warmest or lower ↓ Second warmest on record ↓ Warmest year on record
    Will it happen by Jan 31?

Started at 20% / 41% / 39% on Oct 19. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?

Warmest year on record 20%
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Climate

  1. New forecast: Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Warmest year on record 20%, Second warmest on record 41%, Third warmest or lower 39%.

Join Zoose or log in to chat.

All coverage